The logic of House GOP intransigence | NJ.com

The unruly House Republicans who emasculated Speaker John Boehner as the country flirts with fiscal havoc might've seemed like they were doing their best "Lord of the Flies" rendition.

 

 

But last week's mayhem had a certain logic -- the logic of politicians wanting to keep their jobs.

The logic of House GOP intransigence | NJ.com: In the staunchly conservative districts that most House Republicans inhabit, playing ball with President Barack Obama on taxes and the debt means tempting a primary opponent in the next election. The threat of a challenge from the left that might come from digging in, on the other hand, is almost nonexistent for most members.

As a matter of pure political self-interest, the post-election debate within the GOP about how to broaden the party's appeal and avoid another Romney-esque debacle in four years is irrelevant in this quarter of GOP politics. For the overwhelming majority of House Republicans, the largely white, resolutely conservative electorate that Mitt Romney relied on -- excessively, as it turned out -- is all they need to ensure reelection.

 

The polarization was exacerbated by the just completed, once-a-decade redistricting process. Both parties -- but particularly Republicans, who swept control of statehouses across the country in the 2010 conservative wave -- redrew district lines to shore up House members politically.

 

When all was said and done, 109 Republican seats and 67 Democratic seats were made safer.

 

But House watchers say it's also owed to three consecutive wave elections from 2006 and 2010, which had the effect of sweeping out moderate members from both parties who occupied swing districts. When the next Congress convenes in January, it will contain just a handful of Northeast Republicans. The ranks of conservative Blue Dog Democrats, meanwhile, have been decimated to just over a dozen members -- down from more than 50 in 2008.

 

"The greatest motivator for a member of Congress is to keep their job, and I think primaries have become a bigger concern over the last two cycles," Chocola said. "If a district is worried about raising taxes, the member is going to take note of it."

Still, some question whether Republicans may be oversensitive to the potential political fallout from voting to raise taxes. Last week, Harper Polling surveyed Republican voters on whether a candidate who signs a no-tax pledge, such as the one advocated by conservative activist Grover Norquist, should ever violate that pledge. A less-than-overwhelming 47 percent said the pledge should be followed.

McCleary, who oversaw the poll, said the results illustrated there are also political risks for Republicans who appear overly intransigent.

"You run either risk," he said, "not compromising or violating the pledge."